Thanks to some information we obtained recently from the internet, we have to re-evaluate our estimates on Theos Medical Systems’ Chummie bedwetting alarm and their degree of deceit.
Quick Summary:
In our opinion there is a 95% probability that Chummie’s North American sales are between 500 and 1,500 units per year. We would associate a 99% probability that their current annual sales in North America are between 400 and 2,500 units. Our expectation would be about 1,200 units per year.
The key is Chummie’s success, or the lack of it, on eBay. eBay is without question the second largest and most important site for selling products such as Chummie, after Amazon. Chummie has been sold on eBay since July 30, 2011, which is about when they entered the U.S. and North American market. Since that time, eBay reports that 107 units of Chummie have sold as of October 4, 2013.
We obviously have to make some estimates of eBay’s share
of the market relative to Amazon, and tertiary sites such as Rakuten, Sears,
Wayfair, etc. which are also used by Chummie to offer their wares to the
public.
Amazon:
We would estimate that Chummie’s sales on Amazon could be
as much as 5 times greater than on eBay. The primary reason for giving Amazon
this large edge over eBay is that Chummie has been stuffing positive reviews on
Amazon, something that they cannot do successfully on eBay. We note that many
reviews on Amazon come from sources with very limited exposure to Amazon, and
there are almost no Amazon “REAL NAME” reviewers, particularly for positive
reviews. We also believe that a very substantial number of reviews probably
originate directly with Chummie (its principals, relatives, employees, etc.)
with several “Amazon Verified Purchase” being Chummie or its friends purchasing
the product from Amazon, and Chummie taking the hit for Amazon’s fee with the
expectation that these “Verified Purchase” reviews would provide more
credibility. That is what one would expect, but with the likely abuse of this
by Chummie, we cannot place much credibility on these reviews.
We also pay attention to when, and under what circumstances,
reviews occur on the Chummie page on Amazon, and the content of such reviews. We
notice that whenever Chummie receives a negative review, a rash of positive
reviews promptly appear. Many completely toe Chummie’s line, even when it is
irrational or just plain stupid in our minds for a person to be behaving or claiming
what is often read. Many reviews are “testimonials” to buy more items from
Chummie, although this defeats Chummie’s avowed purpose of reducing the cost to
the customer. Also, to get around obvious defects in Chummie, such as the
sensor not staying on the briefs, many customers come up with alternatives
including using duct tape and putting on a second set of briefs to help the
sensor to remain in place.
Here is a recent
review in its entirety:
“My child moves around alot
when he sleeps and the alarm gets triggered for any little thing. The batteries
die extremely quick. It works but a good portion of the time it goes off
randomly even at the slightest movement. The alrm itself is pretty
uncomfortable for my son since its bulky and he sleeps stomach down but
anything to help him stop wetting the bed and being self concious.”
This got an understandable
comment of “Why are you still using It?” Our guess for the obvious answer would
be “I have wasted over $100 on this, because of all the false advertising that I read. I cannot just throw away this money. With
my experience I would never have purchased it.”
Everything is
looking even phonier than when we did our analysis in July on Chummie’s Amazon
Reviews. For phony Chummie positive reviews on Amazon, we now place a 90%
confidence level at between 25% and 50% of positive Chummie reviews being fakes
placed by Chummie, with an expectation of about 35% to 40% fake positive reviews.
Chummie has also been extremely aggressive in having negative reviews removed
from Amazon, for many of which we do not understand why it happened. As an
example, please see Amazon-Chummie
.
In essence,
Chummie’s credibility for its reviews on Amazon is being revised negatively for
Chummie. From a “stars” perspective, if Chummie was not fiddling substantially
with its Amazon reviews, we doubt if Chummie would get more than 3-stars.
Other Selling Sites:
These sites include Best Buy, Sears, Wayfair, Rakuten, etc.
that advertise the Chummie product. It is interesting to note that the first
and most prominent site (particularly in Chummie’s advertising and claims),
Best Buy, now stipulates “We’re sorry, this item is no longer available.” Best
Buy was Chummie’s claim to selling in a major retail store on two continents.
Best Buy has obviously dropped Chummie as not being a suitable product for them
to carry. Chummie, however, has not dropped Best Buy from its site and
advertising. But then Chummie has never displayed a sufficient level of truth
or honesty in its advertising to be given even reasonable credit.
If Best Buy considered Chummie to be a dud, how long will
these tertiary sites keep Chummie? Maybe forever, as they are simply listing
sites that get a commission from Chummie if anything is sold. They do not have
to stand behind or support or give refunds for any poor product sold on their
site, which apparently became a severe burden for Best Buy. But sales through these
channels should be very low.
Chummie’s Web Site:
Chummie can expect some sales from its own store.
However, please note that Chummie does not subscribe to any paid advertising
(for example, Google Adwords) and is not on the first two pages of a Google search
for “bedwetting alarm” which may be the most commonly used phrase for an
organic search. Consequently, sales on its site would be less than it might be
with paid advertising and better organic ranking.
Negative Press:
Chummie has many reviews relating to them on the
internet. Some are positive, but it is our opinion that almost all (and
probably all) are either written and placed by Chummie or placed by parties who
receive some form of compensation from Chummie. See chummie-very-strong-deceit-on-internet
for more details.
Furthermore, on unbiased comprehensive comparison sites
which present detailed raw data about all of the alarms sold in the U.S.
Chummie compares very poorly with several competing devices, both for features
and price. See comparebedwettingalarms/wired-alarms
as an example.
Foreign Sales:
Although Chummie claims to sell its product in other
countries, we have no reason to believe that they may be more successful in
these countries compared to North America. We also believe that the North
American market is by far the largest market in the word. We shall ignore
Chummie’s sales abroad and focus on North American sales.
Conclusion:
In our opinion there is a 95% probability that Chummie’s
North American sales are between 500 and 1,700 units per year. We would
associate a 99% probability that their current annual sales in North America
are between 400 and 2,500 units. Our expectation would be about 1,200 units per year.
The probability of Chummie having sold over 100,000 units
two years ago, or have over 100,000 satisfied families today (according to Chummie’s
advertising) tends to zero. In other words, we think it extremely safe to state
that these sales numbers of Chummie are ridiculously improbable and fictitious.
Looking at this blog, it is apparent that there are severe problems with Theos Medical Systems and their Chummie product, and the manner in which they conduct their business. These apparent problems only get worse with time and more exposure to their behavior. With the low apparent volume of their sales and the unethical manner in which they promote their sales, their sustainability as a viable business becomes more and more questionable.
